/Posthaste: Scheer’s big break for small biz isn’t for ‘mom and pop’ — and should investors worry about a Trump impeachment?

Posthaste: Scheer’s big break for small biz isn’t for ‘mom and pop’ — and should investors worry about a Trump impeachment?

Good morning!

A new impeachment circus will land in Washington D.C. today and investors are already feeling jittery, piling in on gold and fleeing equities.

BMO Capital Market says that while an impeachment inquiry is “highly unlikely” to lead to the U.S. President’s dismissal from office, given the two-thirds vote required for conviction in the Senate (which means at least 20 Republicans will vote guilty), “it could distract Congress from ratifying the USMCA and distract the President from signing a trade deal with China.”

RBC Capital Markets, which surveyed clients in September to assess the market’s mood, says investors were feeling better in its latest survey, but that was before Trump’s Ukraine scandal blew up, leading to an impeachment inquiry. While the bank did not ask the impeachment question this time around, its June survey — when the Robert Mueller report was the talk of Washington — suggested that 57 per cent felt a Trump impeachment without conviction would be neutral for stocks.

“We tend to agree with the neutral assessment on the latter scenario, but note that it could have a more adverse impact on the market if it appears to lower Trump’s chances of winning re-election, or Biden’s chances for winning the nomination, given that a win by a progressive Democrat is clearly viewed as a negative scenario for stocks by investors today,” RBC said in its report.

Here’s what’s you need to know this morning:

  • The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce hosts its annual Eastern Institutional Investor Conference in Montreal
  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will announce the NDP’s New Deal in Vancouver; Green Leader Elizabeth May in Halifax and Montreal; Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer in Quebec; Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Justin Trudeau in Thunder Bay, Ont. and Delta B.C.; Maxime Bernier, Leader of the People’s Party of Canada, in B.C.
  • U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao speaks to the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations about global transportation challenges in Montreal
  • Policy Options hosts a breakfast panel on emerging policy themes in the 2019 federal election campaign
  • The Elevate tech conference in Toronto
  • Disclosure application hearing for Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou’s case in Vancouver
  • Corporate Event: AGF Management Q3 conference call

BlackBerry Ltd.’s big earnings miss and lower forward guidance had the shares tumbling more than 20 per cent to a four-year low early Tuesday.

BlackBerry’s Internet-of-Things (IoT) division and Cylance cyber security unit both missed consensus estimates and contributed to the miss, according to analysts.

RBC Dominion Securities cut its price target for the Waterloo-based company to $7.50, from $9, noting that it remains a “show me” story.

“The investor debate on BlackBerry stems from the company’s future opportunity compared to its current momentum,” wrote analyst Paul Treiber in a note to clients. “Licensing and BTS appears the healthiest, given design win momentum which may drive stronger growth. For other opportunities like ESS and Radar, limited near-term growth reduces long-term visibility. Cylance is early, and Cylance’s lower growth vs. some competitors creates uncertainty.”

— Please send your news, comments and stories to [email protected]. — Yadullah Hussain @pamheaven

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg


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